To the OG's of PuckLuck, you know how big the return of the PuckLuck Primer is. We're back for the 2024-2025 season, now that I have some more time to dedicate toward helping you succeed in the NHL betting world. If you're new to PuckLuck, the Primer is your premier source for the initial outlook of the NHL slate, showing the early leans of the model and offering up extended analysis.
Let's talk about betting on underdogs in the NHL and why the model keeps showing value there. We had some early success on undervalued teams, went away from it after an adjustment to the model, then went back to finding value and success once again.
The NHL is nuanced in that the team that plays better doesn't always win. With most games falling within a goal difference, it's much easier for a fluky upset in the NHL than, say, the NBA or NFL. Sometimes it takes one save, one powerplay, or one fortunate bounce for an underdog to pull of the win.
Now, are we able to snipe the upsets consistently over the long term? Of course not. The PuckLuck Picks are 40% on the moneyline while leaning heavily into underdog picks. Compare that to who the model actually favors, where the model is choosing the correct winner at 60%.
But is it profitable? Yes, and that's what is most important. We're having mild success on the moneyline, returning 1.58% on investment as of this morning. The model is constantly self-testing and I'm personally always monitoring results, so that any changes in variables (such as the average amount of goals in the NHL, penalty rates, average save percentages, etc.) are properly accounted for. Based on previous seasons, we're in for a big lift in ROI in the coming weeks and over the next couple of months.
So the TLDR is to not be afraid to bet underdogs. It's a riskier play, based on expecting to win under 50% of the time, but the payouts will prove profitable in the end. As always, if you're feeling something that the model opposes, go for it. Projection models are just a guide, meant to steer you in the right direction. Our model is going on eight profitable seasons (fourth available to the public) so we're battled-tested and here to help.
That being said, let's get into today's early game projections, betting edges, and starting goalies: